SAPOA Convention 2025 panel recap and what it means for South Africa’s REITs
South Africa’s listed property story is one of powerful cycles, resilience and renewal. From a market capitalisation of R3.8 billion in 1998 to more than R400 billion by 2017, the sector outperformed equities and bonds for long stretches before the 2020 correction erased as much as 70% of prices. The SAPOA Convention 2025 listed property panel unpacked this journey and drew a clear conclusion. While listed property is not a perfect proxy for the economy, it remains a credible barometer of real activity when dividend income, operating metrics and capital flows are properly accounted for.
SAPOA Convention 2025 listed property panel moderator Peter Clark (Founder, REdimension Capital) guided a frank conversation with Ian Anderson (Head of Listed Property and Portfolio Manager, Merchant West Investments and compiler of the informative SA REIT Chart Book), Kundayi Munzara (Executive Director & Portfolio Manager, Sesfikile Capital), Pranita Daya (Equity Analyst & Assistant Portfolio Manager, Truffle Asset Management) and Andrew Wooler (Chief Executive Officer, Burstone).
Their core message was measured but optimistic. Dividend growth is returning, balance sheets are better aligned to today’s rate environment and operating fundamentals are improving across many segments. Importantly, when dividends and reinvested income are included over time, no investor who stayed invested “lost money” in the sector. This is a powerful reminder that REITs are designed to channel recurring cash flows to investors, not to offer speculative punts on buildings.
What the cycle taught us
Anderson set the stage with a brief history of the capital super cycle that lifted the asset class for nearly two decades. The sector’s explosive growth was fuelled by income focused products that attracted household investors and by an era of abundant equity that culminated in 2015 to 2017. The correction that followed was severe, yet the recovery since late 2020 has been equally instructive. Listed property has regained leadership on a long horizon because income compounded through the downturn. The lesson is simple. Cash flow discipline beats price chasing.
A second lesson is that capital cycles differ by subsector. Convenience and township retail and logistics have proven more resilient. Office remains the laggard, yet the panel noted falling vacancies in select nodes such as Rosebank and Cape Town, early demand from business process outsourcing and a declining stock base. Patient capital that understands the clock may find value as conditions normalise.
Fundamentals first
Daya argued that on a dividend yield plus growth basis listed property screens well on a three-to-five-year view. Positive rental reversions are reappearing at quality assets, escalations are holding up where demand and supply are balanced and self-generated initiatives such as embedded solar have added durable revenue. Munzara expects low double digit total returns from direct property in South Africa over the cycle and believes listed vehicles can deliver slightly more because of professional asset management and governance.
Valuations remain a key talking point. On average the sector trades at a notable discount to reported net asset value, with wide dispersion across counters. The panel’s take was pragmatic. Private market evidence suggests book values are broadly sound, with an estimated R30 billion of assets sold at a slight premium to NAV in recent years by willing buyers and sellers. Where discounts persist, they often reflect leverage, asset mix, liquidity or a market view on management’s capital allocation record. Better disclosure and consistent definitions for metrics such as like-for-like growth and vacancies would help investors compare companies more cleanly.
Governance, alignment and data
There was strong agreement that governance has improved meaningfully. Crossholdings and related party complexities have reduced and reporting has matured. That said, panellists called for tighter alignment in remuneration and for simpler, standardised KPI definitions across REITs. Investors want transparent links between management rewards and long-term shareholder outcomes. They also want property level data that is comparable across portfolios. The industry has made progress, yet there is more to do.
Capital flows and the cost of money
Wooler noted that the cost of capital has reset globally. Easy equity has given way to a world where discipline in recycling capital, timing disposals and focusing on highest and best use is rewarded. Local banks remain willing lenders at competitive margins which supports private market transactions, yet disposal pipelines from REITs are likely to moderate after several busy years. The broader allocation question remains live. Property still accounts for a low single digit share of the JSE and of balanced portfolios. As policy risk recedes and the rate cycle turns, the panel is seeing growing investor engagement, but property must compete with attractive bond markets that also delivered double digit returns. That puts the onus on REITs to deliver credible, compounding earnings growth.
Why listed property still reads the real economy
Munzara made an important point about the economy that data often undercounts. A large informal sector feeds directly into retail and distribution performance, both of which are strongly represented in listed property cash flows. Industrial is increasingly geared to logistics rather than manufacturing which links it to consumption. Office reflects services sector health. Taken together, these channels make listed property a useful barometer of real activity provided investors look beyond share prices to the underlying cash generation.
Anderson summed up the outlook succinctly. Real dividend growth is returning for the first time in years as fundamentals improve, payout ratios normalise and interest rates ease. Add starting yields that remain elevated and double-digit total returns in the mid-teens are achievable on a three-to-five-year horizon.
The road ahead
The panel closed on a constructive note. Liquidity will always be lower than in banks or large caps and the sector will remain sensitive to capital cycles. Yet REITs have shown an ability to adapt. They have recycled assets, invested in operational efficiency, embraced renewable energy solutions and focused on tenant demand rather than speculative development. The result is a sector that is leaner, better governed and more attuned to investor needs.
For policymakers and city managers the message is equally clear. Credible local government, efficient basic services and predictable regulation are powerful enablers of REIT performance. For investors the takeaway is to focus on quality of cash flows, alignment of incentives and the discipline of capital allocation. For REIT executives it is to keep simplifying, keep standardising and keep telling the income compounding story that underpins the asset class.
Listed property is not the whole economy yet it remains a reliable barometer because it translates on-the-ground activity into cash that can be measured, distributed and reinvested. That is why a sector once written off in 2020 is again drawing interest. The signal from SAPOA 2025 is that the cycle has turned from repair to renewal. The work now is to turn renewed confidence into sustained, real returns.
Download Anderson’s presentation here.
SA REIT Conference 2026
The SA REIT Association’s biennial conference, proudly sponsored by Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking’s Property Finance division, will take place on 12 February 2026 at The Houghton Hotel, Johannesburg.
This flagship event will convene REIT executives, investors, asset managers, policymakers and market experts to engage on the most pressing forces shaping the future of listed real estate. Topics will include global market volatility, access to capital, innovation, local government risks and the policy environment. With a focus on sector credibility and long-term investor relevance, the agenda promises strategic insight and practical direction.
A highlight will be the keynote address by Peter Verwer, Executive Chairman of Futurefy, titled Global REIT Dynamics: Innovation, Influence and Opportunity. He will explore how REITs worldwide are adapting to investor demands, digital transformation, sustainability imperatives and links to infrastructure and nation building. His perspective comes at a pivotal moment, following the relaunch of the Global REIT Alliance in Stockholm in September 2025.
Originally established in 2006 under the banner of the Real Estate Equity Securitization Alliance (REESA), the alliance has been revitalised under its new name to strengthen international collaboration, knowledge-sharing and industry advocacy. The SA REIT Association is a member of the Alliance.
Verwer’s address will provide valuable context for South Africa’s REIT sector within the global investment landscape.
Register here.
