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Frenzied shopping season awaits as Black Friday arrives late

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A frenzied festive shopping season awaits as Black Friday arrives late

Black Friday’s late arrival on 29 November sets the stage for a uniquely condensed peak shopping season. With five fewer days until Christmas compared to the November 25 and 24 dates of the past two years, the question remains: how will this impact retail sales performance?

Black Friday has come to symbolise the kick-off of the holiday shopping period. Despite the earlier dates, the past two years have seen disappointing Black Friday spending. Savvy shoppers demand real value and great experiences, and many South Africans have been particularly cash-strapped.

A shortened shopping season but more consumer confidence

This year, fewer shopping days between Black Friday and Christmas Eve could signal lower sales over the festive period, even with a surge in shopping as consumers scramble to make purchases. However, consumers are feeling more confident about spending than in recent years, and some even have a little more to spend, which could result in bigger baskets balancing out the effects of the compressed timeline.

Factors contributing to this rise in confidence include a settling political landscape, the suspension of load shedding, a stabilising currency, improving inflation rates, a second local interest rate cut, and the first payouts from South Africa’s new Two-Pot Retirement System.

Retailers adapt

General dealers like Game, Makro, Builders, and Jumbo Cash & Carry have already responded to this festive season’s time-crunch dynamic with month-long Black Friday promotions starting in early November.

These extended campaigns may actually work in consumers’ favour, allowing them to feel more secure in their purchasing decisions as they have longer to evaluate deals and sales. That said, campaigns like Game’s, which notes “When it’s gone, it’s gone”, send a clear message not to dither over purchasing decisions too long.

Interest rates and disposable income

Historically, when consumers perceive their financial situation as stable or improving, they’re more likely to splurge during seasonal shopping peaks.

With last week’s announcement of a further 25bps interest rate cut resulting in interest rates being 50bps lower than this time last year, putting a bit more money in consumers’ pockets, we can expect a positive impact on festive spending. The start of a downward interest rate cycle in September means consumers will have some more disposable income to allocate towards non-essential purchases.

Wage increases and year-end bonus payouts are expected to improve in 2024, adding to seasonal spending power. Yet, many companies remain under financial strain, with limited capacity to pay bonuses, instead opting for retail gift cards for their employees.

The two-pot effect

When it comes to the first payouts from the Two-Pot Retirement System, indications are that much of this will go to debt repayment and education-related spending. Still, it will also benefit retail as the easing of other financial pressures allows people to loosen their spending belts a little.

A focus on essentials

However, for the 2024 festive season overall, consumers will continue to remain cautious, focusing primarily on essentials. At Emira, recognising the increasing preference for an all-in-one shopping experience has led to a focus on providing exceptional shopper experiences and smooth journeys.

Buy-now-pay-later

The attractiveness of buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) options like Pay Just Now and Payflex will play a role in festive buying trends – online and instore, offering consumers no-fee, interest-free repayment plans that are especially appealing to budget-conscious consumers.

The role of social media

Social media will have an immense influence on the choice of gifts and the season’s most-wanted items, with platforms like TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram becoming virtual shop windows. Influencers have become modern-day advertisements that help retailers reach audiences in an authentic way.

Seamless shopping experiences

For shopping centres and retailers, the short season means a greater emphasis on providing seamless experiences. Ensuring ease throughout the shopping journey means customers can enjoy frictionless festive shopping outings.

Many price-conscious and time-pressed shoppers arrive at a shopping centre knowing what they want after comparing products and pricing online but still prefer the in-store purchasing experience. So, it’s important to make their shopping trip a good one.

All-in-one shopping

At Emira, our retail centres offer a variety of essential and unique retailers. One example is Wonderpark Shopping Centre in Pretoria, which is expanding its entertainment and leisure offering with the launch of Goldrush in November and a refurbished Play Area and Kiddies Club in time for December and the school holidays, surrounded by various restaurants and eateries. These amenities invite customers to linger longer, providing maximum value to their overall shopping experience.

A January boost?

Interestingly, the condensed festive season may actually lead to higher spending in January. Consumers may feel rushed, postponing certain purchases until the new year. The growth in the popularity of gift cards as presents means redemptions will occur in January, driving sales.

Back-to-school dash

Back-to-school shopping in January may also see a more pronounced trend than in the past, with both inland and coastal public schools, as well as most private schools, starting on the same day, 15 January 2025. This creates another potential time crunch, emphasising excellent seasonal planning to meet demand and quickly pivot from one retail season into another.

The stakes are high

The stakes are always high for retailers and shopping centres over the holiday season, and this year’s condensed timelines intensify the pressure.

Shopping centres that deliver smooth, seamless, all-in-one experiences, with retailers offering trending products and services, various payment options, and great customer service, will be best positioned to benefit from the upside of the early improvement in consumer sentiment.

Emira reports robust half-year results and reshapes its portfolio 

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Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI) reported strategic delivery, diversification-enhancing acquisitions, active capital recycling, and strong operational and balance sheet metrics for its six-month interim period ended 30 September 2024. The company’s interim distributable income per share increased by 6.9%. It declared a 1.1% higher cash-backed interim dividend per share of 62.39c. Emira’s net asset value per share increased by 12.3% to 1,945.50cps during the six months, driven by rising property valuations and the fair value equity gain from Emira’s maiden investment in Poland.

Geoff Jennett, CEO of Emira Property Fund, attributes the positive performance to strengthening operational metrics, active asset recycling, and strategic deal-making, reflected in its reshaped portfolio. He adds that Emira is on track to deliver on its objectives for the full year, which it expects to result in marginally higher distributable income compared to that achieved for its past financial year.

Jennett reports, “Emira’s local portfolio outperformed, our US investments are comfortably on track, and we completed the first tranche of our investment into DL Invest, bolstering our diversification by tapping into Poland’s burgeoning economy with its unique growth drivers and opportunities.”

Emira invested €55,5 million for an initial effective 25% equity stake in DL Invest Group, a Luxembourg-headquartered property company developing logistics centres, mixed-use/office complexes and retail parks, valuing its assets at €730 million and NAV at €278 million pre-investment.

Emira has the option to expand its position in DL Invest Group by investing an additional €44,5 million, which will   increase its equity holding to 45%. This second tranche subscription option must be exercised by 31 January 2025 and requires shareholder approval to pursue. Castleview Property Fund, which holds around 58% of Emira’s issued shares, has given its irrevocable vote in favour of exercising the option, and shareholders can expect to receive a circular regarding the option.

DL Invest Group has a 17-year track record in Polish commercial real estate, with a €730 million portfolio focused mainly on logistics. Emira’s investment will fund DL Invest Group’s logistics development pipeline, aiming to create a €1 billion business. The partnership aligns with its co-investment strategy with in-country specialists. Emira will participate actively, with board representation, and has committed to an initial five to six-year investment term.

Funding for the first tranche of investment came from Emira’s balance sheet and recent disposals. Its non-core commercial and residential property sales transferred, completed and agreed upon during the period totalled R2.6bn. Emira’s strategic capital recycling strengthens liquidity by disposing of non-core assets that can be sold at fuller value. This creates capacity to invest in undervalued opportunities with stronger growth potential.

Emira’s balance sheet is healthy, with an adequate 2.3x interest cover ratio and a loan-to-value ratio that declined from 42.4% to 42.0% over the six months and is expected to decrease further as property disposals transfer and a portion of the proceeds are deployed to reduce debt. It reported unutilised debt facilities of R370m and cash on hand of R112.8m at half-year which will increase as proceeds from disposals are realised. Emira has a strong and diversified financial foundation, with support from all major South African banks and the proven ability to access the debt capital markets. In October, GCR affirmed its corporate long-term credit rating of A(ZA) and corporate short-term rating of A1(ZA), with a stable outlook.

The first tranche of its latest transaction has immediately increased Emira’s international investments to 26.8% of its portfolio — with 15.5% in the US and 11.3% in Poland — while 73% remains in South Africa, shifting it towards lower-risk, more attractive diversification with enhanced stability and appeal. The second tranche DL Invest Group option creates the potential for this to become nearly 37% offshore.

Emira is a real estate investment trust (REIT) with a diversified portfolio balanced to deliver stability and sustainability through different cycles. This risk-mitigating strategy includes a mix of domestic and international assets in direct holdings and indirect investments with specialist co-investors. Emira’s direct South African portfolio of 84 properties worth R12.1bn is diversified across commercial property sectors and residential rental property. Emira’s exposure to the United States is with US-based partner The Rainier Companies. Emira holds equity interests, with unanimous voting rights, in 12 dominant, value-oriented grocery-anchored power centres.

The local portfolio performed well, surpassing most key targets. SA commercial vacancies are already low and tightened to 3.9% from 4.1%. The portfolio saw an increase in like-for-like valuation of 4.7%, reflecting enhanced metrics across all three sectors and improved business sentiment. Residential occupancy remained strong at 96.7% and, similarly, maintained like-for-like valuation levels. Both sets of metrics signal a property portfolio that is attractive, competitive, adaptable and designed for lasting performance.

Emira’s commercial portfolio by value is split between urban retail (43%), office (25%) and industrial (15%) of the directly held SA portfolio. All sector vacancies are below the applicable benchmarks, and tenant retention increased from 81% to 83% by revenue during the period, reinforcing Emira’s effective leasing strategies. Its 15-property directly held retail portfolio of primarily grocery-anchored neighbourhood centres catering to their communities is trading well with improved metrics, including low vacancies of 4.2%. Despite the slump in office sector fundamentals, Emira’s portfolio of 20 mainly P- and A-grade office properties saw office vacancies improve into single-digit territory, from 10.9% to 9.4%. Emira’s diversified industrial portfolio of 28 properties enjoyed strong demand and delivered a sustained defensive performance at near full occupancy, with vacancies stable at 0.7%.

Residential rental assets comprise 21 properties, or 17% of Emira’s directly held SA portfolio by value, comprised of The Bolton in Rosebank, Johannesburg, and the 20 quality, affordable suburban units of Transcend Residential Property Fund, Emira’s wholly-owned specialist residential company. The portfolio of 3,588 units is split between Gauteng’s (90% by value) and Cape Town’s (10% by value) high-demand areas. The portfolio is achieving rental growth, with sustained demand for accommodation.

Overall, the commercial portfolio benefited from R119.8m in tactical upgrades, including various sustainability-driven initiatives, reconfigurations and refurbishments. Emira also invested R8.6m into its residential portfolio.

Emira collaborates with industry bodies to address South Africa’s deteriorating municipal infrastructure, which is a concern due to underinvestment. Inconsistent utility supply and rising costs hinder operational efficiency. To combat this, Emira is driving sustainability through fast-tracked solar power, water-saving initiatives, and backup systems. “We’re committed to energy-efficient buildings and are passionate about biodiversity. Our ESG strategy makes Emira properties the excellent choice for businesses,” notes Jennett.

Jennett points to easing inflation, declining interest rates, and growing political stability in South Africa, transforming the outlook for local real estate. “With costs stabilising for consumers and businesses alike, spending is set to rise, boosting property demand. More favourable interest rates should bolster investor confidence and reshape tenant demand patterns. Decreased loadshedding has further strengthened business confidence, prompting firms to invest in longer-term plans. Improved sentiment post-election bodes well for stronger long-term returns from the property sector, but short-term growth will be tempered as the market absorbs elevated vacancies and while economic headwinds subside. While it will take time for these positive factors to yield measurable results, they position Emira well to continue delivering strong returns to investors.”

Emira’s 12 equity investments in US grocery-anchored dominant value-oriented power centres total R2.56bn (USD147.1m). The US economy remains on a steady and stable growth trajectory, with GDP up 3% for Q2 2024 and 2.8% for Q3 2024 coupled with low unemployment, easing inflation and a 50bps cut to interest rates in September and another 25bps trim in November. While US elections introduced some uncertainty to the economy, stability should return with clarity of the new government’s priorities and policy. This environment continues to support Emira’s investment in US open-air centres focused on popular value and needs-based retail in robust markets.

Robustly resilient property fundamentals and high-quality tenants underpinned the US portfolio’s low vacancy rate of 3.5% and combined portfolio WALE of 4.5 years. It delivered a solid performance, adding R120.1m to Emira’s distributable income.

Jennett concludes, “Emira’s strategic pivot is in full swing as we target opportunities with robust growth potential tightly aligned with our long-term goals. These solid half-year results put us firmly on track for a marginal increase in distributable income for FY25, reinforcing Emira’s consistent record of reliable performance.”

Spear REIT successful equity capital raise of R 457 million

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Cape Town, 17 September 2024: Spear, a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) focused on investing in real estate within the Western Cape region, has announced the successful completion of an equity capital raise of R 457,75 million via a vendor consideration placement. This announcement follows the recent unconditional status of the acquisition of the Emira Western Cape portfolio, adding further impetus to its Western Cape-only-focused growth strategy.

The vendor consideration placement will allow the issuance of 50,302,197 new shares to public shareholders at an issue price of R9.10 per share. This equity placement was completed at a 1% discount to Spear’s 30-day VWAP, (volume-weighted average price), being R9.19 per share before 13 September 2024. The listing and issuance of the new shares are expected to commence at 09:00 on Monday, 23 September, 2024.

Spear REIT CEO Quintin Rossi affirmed, “Spear has remained laser-focused on building a high-quality, regionally centred real estate portfolio that consistently generates sustainable cashflows and profitability. The proceeds of Spear’s vendor consideration placement will be put to work to generate a mission-statement-aligned return for all stakeholders after the implementation of the new portfolio acquisition along with seeking out attractive portfolio growth opportunities within the region.” The Western Cape has stood out as the most desirable real estate investment and development market in South Africa as Provincial and Municipal investment fundamentals outpace the balance of South Africa, resulting in improved economic activity, boding well for real estate valuations and rates of return.

Spear is on the cusp of implementing its R 1,146 billion acquisition of a 13-asset Western Cape-only portfolio from the Emira Property Fund, which will see its assets under ownership increase to R 5,3 billion on the implementation date. The acquired assets constitute a diversified portfolio of 93 500m2 comprising high-quality industrial, medical retail and commercial offices in attractive and well-established Cape Town nodes. Following the new portfolio acquisition, management will continue to seek incremental investment and development opportunities, while also exploring diversified portfolio options within the Western Cape, that are in line with its investment strategy.

The proceeds of the vendor consideration placement will be utilised to settle short-term debt obligations and replenish the revolving credit facility emanating from the Category 1 transaction once implemented.

Spear’s loan-to-value following the vendor consideration placement and the implementation of the new portfolio acquisition by the end of October 2024 will be between 33% and 34%. Beyond the transfer date of the new portfolio acquisition Spear’s strong balance sheet will provide sufficient headroom for transactional opportunities for management to act as and when the need arises.

Spear’s regionally focused operating strategy and the fact that it is a fully internally managed REIT allow for focused asset management opportunities to be unlocked across its current portfolio assets and its acquisition and development pipeline.

Management remains optimistic that its growth strategy through acquisitions and developments, including a clear and implementable renewable energy and water continuity strategy, will enable Spear to grow its portfolio value in an income-accretive manner within the Western Cape towards becoming a meaningful mid-cap SA REIT.

Spear recently held its pre-close presentation for HY2025 which showed its consistent Western Cape performance, a contraction in vacancies thanks to strong leasing momentum, and positive rental reversion rates on a portfolio level.

Spear will announce its HY2025 operational and financial results for the six months ending August 2024 on 24 October 2024 at 11:00 via an in-person presentation in Cape Town and a live stream via the company’s YouTube channel.

Emira takes 25% stake in Polish company DL Invest Group

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Emira takes 25% strategic stake in Polish logistics-focused property company DL Invest Group

Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI) has announced a strategic investment in the Luxembourg-headquartered Polish property developer and investor DL Invest Group, marking a significant milestone in the SA REIT’s international investment strategy. With a €55.5 million investment, Emira has acquired an effective 25% initial stake in DL Invest Group, which has a gross asset value (GAV) of approximately €730m and a net asset value (NAV) prior to Emira’s investment of approximately €278m. Emira’s equity interest has a face value of €101.5 million.  Emira has also secured the option to acquire a further interest for €45.5 million. If exercised, this second tranche will result in Emira holding 45.0% of the issued shares of DL Invest Group.

This initial strategic move will immediately increase Emira’s international investments to 32% of its portfolio — with 19% in the US and 13% in Poland — while 68% remains in South Africa, further strengthening its investment diversification.

Geoff Jennett, CEO of Emira Property Fund, notes the company has timed its market entry with the right deal. “We’ve taken the time to find the right partner, and for us, this is the right way to enter this economy at the right time. This method of capitalising on opportunities in the growing Polish economy aligns with Emira’s co-investment model, which the market is familiar with, where we mitigate risk as a minority partner with solid protections paired with an established local specialist seeking similar outcomes, resulting in informed investment decisions and improved returns.”

DL Invest, a wholly owned subsidiary of the DL Invest Group, controlled by Mr Dominik Leszczynski, has been active in the Polish commercial real estate market for 17 years, since 2007. It boasts a robust portfolio of circa 50 properties, including large logistics facilities (75%), small retail parks (15%), and mixed-use office/retail spaces (10%), with a strong multinational tenant base. Its significant and attractive portfolio of assets is internally managed by approximately 232 employees who make up the founder-led private company. It is a long-term property investor and a dynamic young business entering its next phase.

The capital injection provided by Emira will fuel DL Invest Group’s ambitious logistics warehouse development pipeline and propel it towards becoming a €1 billion business.

For Emira, the investment has an attractive return profile, with a minimum Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on a 5 year basis of approximately 20.9% in Euros, yielding at least 7.2% in cash per year, escalated annually by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the European Area (HICP) of between 2% and 4%, with the balance on redemption. Emira will fund the investment from its current balance sheet using available debt facilities and proceeds from recently announced disposals.

Ensuring active participation in strategic decisions, Emira will have a director’s seat and an observer’s seat on the DL Invest Group board. Emira listed property experience complements DL Invest Group’s on-the-ground expertise in Poland real estate, creating strong synergies and a promising partnership. Emira has committed to a minimum five to six-year initial investment period but, if both parties agree, the partnership can continue beyond this timeframe.

“For Emira, taking a stake in DL Invest Group provides security of sector, country, company, and returns – we’re not only excited about the diversification for Emira but we are also very excited about co-operating with DL Invest Group to maximise what we can achieve by playing to our strengths together,” says Jennett.

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