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SA REIT Association expects steady sector growth in 2025

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The South African Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector is poised for growth in 2025 driven by improving investor sentiment and property fundamentals, rising consumer confidence and falling interest rates.

According to the SA REIT Association December and January Chart Books, the sector is expected to deliver strong income returns of c.8%-9%.

Itumeleng Mothibeli, Chairperson of the SA REIT Research Committee and Managing Director of Vukile Property Fund Southern Africa commented:

“With the economic recovery, lower interest rates and robust demand for commercial property—particularly in the retail,  industrial and logistics sectors – we anticipate growth in the REIT sector this year. Our members are consistently reporting improvements in property fundamentals and the quality of earnings.”

“Township, urban and rural malls will continue to show resilience, while demand for logistics and warehousing space will remain strong. In the office sector, vacancies are falling as demand increases for smaller, high-quality spaces with features like co-working spaces, wellness facilities and smart technology are a draw card for tenants.”

Mothibeli said the defensive qualities of South African REITs such as their inflation protection, mandatory income distributions, liquidity and diversification advantages make them essential for building resilient portfolios. The predictability of real estate leases and rental income gives REITs a defensive edge, enabling more accurate earnings forecasts and lower share price volatility. REIT dividends are known to hedge against inflation, as asset values and rental rates often rise ahead of inflation.

“The cumulative 75-basis point interest rate cut will support sector growth, reduce borrowing and debt repayment costs for REITs, increase property values and returns for investors and boost distributions,” said Mothibeli.  

Despite the economy’s prolonged stagnation in 2024, Nedbank forecasts modest growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. However, the bank expects fewer interest rates this year.

Nicky Weimar, Nedbank Group Economist commented: “Growth will be driven mainly by firmer consumer spending, supported by rising real incomes, subdued inflation, modestly lower interest rates and the withdrawals of contractional savings through the two-pot retirement fund system.

“Commercial property mortgages are recovering while home loans continue to slow. Nedbank expected both the commercial and residential property markets to improve moderately as the year progresses.”

Weimar stressed that the rapidly changing global landscape would probably deliver stickier global inflation and fewer US interest rate cuts, pointing to high-for-longer risk-free rates and continued US dollar strength. Against this backdrop, the South African Reserve Bank is likely to remain cautious.

Given upside risks to the local inflation outlook from a vulnerable rand, elevated US interest rates and the threat of global trade war, the current rate-cutting cycle is likely to be shallow. Nedbank forecasts only one more rate cut of 25 basis points in July. Consequently, monetary policy easing is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the property market. Instead, moderately faster economic growth in response to easing structural constraints and stronger consumer demand will support a reasonable recovery in the property market, said Weimar.

Gary Garrett, Managing Executive of Property Finance at Nedbank CIB commented: “We saw a significant increase in activity in the sector in the second half of 2024 which we attribute to the stability created by the Government of National Unity (GNU) as well as real evidence of interest rate cuts. We believe that this momentum will continue in 2025 should current economic conditions hold.”

The listed property sector outperformed other asset classes, including equities and bonds in 2024, further highlighting the positive sentiment and investor confidence in the sector, Garrett added.

South African REITs are poised for strong growth in 2025

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The ongoing strengthening of property fundamentals, combined with rising demand and increased market activity, alongside declining interest rates, will position South African REITs for a strong growth trajectory heading into 2025.

The REIT sector, which made a strong recovery in October 2024, has outpaced other asset classes, delivering a 34% return year-to-date. In comparison, the broader equity market has returned 15.9%, while South African bonds have gained 16.7%.

Key factors contributing to this outperformance include the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and a stable power supply, both of which have positively impacted the sector and driven improvements in property fundamentals.

Estienne De Klerk, Chairperson of the SA REIT Association and Growthpoint Properties South African CEO commented:

“In 2024, we have seen notable improvements in key property performance indicators, signalling strong investment potential and supporting expectations for future net rental growth. The anticipation of additional interest rate cuts has further bolstered investor confidence and sentiment, creating a positive outlook for the sector as we head into 2025.

However, the cumulative 50 basis point rate cut so far is not a panacea –  it is essential for stimulating market demand and activity, as well as supporting growth in company earnings. While not immediate, additional rate cuts will support REITs in raising capital, refinancing maturing loans, and acquiring new assets.”

To ensure long-term liquidity and a solid balance sheet, REITs have remained focused on strategically disposing of non-core assets, optimising their portfolios to enhance quality and implementing proactive asset management strategies to increase property values, he said.

De Klerk noted that sentiment in the office sector has strengthened, evidenced by a surge in space inquiries and a decline in vacancies. In coastal regions, demand is now outpacing supply in certain areas as more people return to the office. However, oversupply still exists in Gauteng.

Meanwhile, the retail sector is growing. As consumer sentiment improves, De Klerk expects to see better trading densities and rental growth in 2025. The industrial property sector continues to outperform, driven by strong demand, limited supply and rising construction costs, all of which are fuelling rental growth—this trend is set to continue into 2025.

Sustainability

Shifts in how and where tenants occupy commercial space has resulted in increased demand for sustainable buildings, new and high-quality refurbished buildings across the industrial, retail and office sectors.

REITs have made substantial investments in solar power and water supply infrastructure, continually enhancing their buildings to reduce carbon footprints while offering occupiers high-quality, sustainable spaces to operate from.

For many, sustainability is embedded in their organisational DNA and core business strategies for long-term benefits.

“In November, we launched the SAREIT Sustainability Disclosure Guide to set clear sustainability standards and best practices for South Africa’s real estate sector. We are confident that this initiative will play a pivotal role in supporting our members on their sustainability journeys,” said Joanne Solomon, CEO of SA REIT.

As a key player in addressing environmental, social and governance (ESG) challenges, the guide will provide strategic direction for the industry, helping to shape a future where sustainable practices are seamlessly integrated into business strategies, driving both resilience and long-term value,” she added.

SA listed property sector outshines bonds, equities and cash year-to-date

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SA’s listed property has outperformed bonds, equities and cash year-to-date, and with rate cut expectations, the sector is likely to see further growth in earnings, higher retail spending and share price up-side over time, according to an independent property analyst.

In recent months, the sector has seen a rally driven by the US Federal Reserve signalling an end to the rate hiking season, positive sentiment with the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU), and the anticipation of interest rate cuts in South Africa.

Keillen Ndlovu, Independent Property Analyst commented: “In global comparison, SA listed property outperformed other asset classes year-to-date thanks to their diversified portfolios whereas globally, listed property with mostly specialised assets underperformed and delivered marginally positive returns of 2.9% in Rand terms.”

Year-to-date to July, SA’s listed property has delivered 14.4% in returns (income and capital growth) compared to bonds (9.8%), equities (10.0%) and cash (4.9%). The sector has recovered from being the worst performer delivering a negative 2.2% over the same period in 2023, said Ndlovu.

Positive outlook 

Joanne Solomon, CEO of SA REIT Association said rate cuts will benefit the listed property sector leading to a recovery in lending and capital markets which may result in increased investment activity.

“Our members are reporting an improvement in property fundamentals – declining vacancy rates, rental increases – albeit off a low base, and demand for space, especially in industrial and logistic, retail and select office assets in key locations.

“We expect property fundamentals and earnings to continue to improve.”

A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is an international standard for property investment, where a tax dispensation ensures a flow-through of net property income after expenses and interest. In 2013, there were 54 real estate listed stocks on the JSE – this figure was down to 46 at the end of the first quarter of 2024.

There are currently 35 locally focused listed property stocks on the JSE of which 29 are REITs and six are non-REITs. There are 11 offshore-focused stocks, of which seven are REITs and four are non-REITs, according to research done by Ndlovu.

Ndlovu was speaking at a recent Unlock the Stock Webinar focusing on the South African REIT sector with market analysts, The Finance Ghost and Mark Tobin.

“I believe that REITs are highly investable at this point in the cycle – investors benefit from a selection of high-quality JSE-listed REITs whose management teams have lived through tough economic cycles,” said The Finance Ghost.

The Finance Ghost said REITs have the potential to perform well from this point onwards given the significant renewed optimism around South Africa and anticipated rate cuts.

Certain REITs appeal to investors in developed countries with growth rates like Spain and Poland as well as developed markets like the UK with lower risks in general.

Ndlovu said that even though REITs earnings will likely decline by 3%-4% on average this year mainly because of higher interest rates, earnings will return to positive territory in 2025 and to inflation-beating levels in 2026.

“If the economy grows faster and interest rate cuts happen sooner and more aggressively, we can see robust growth in earnings earlier than 2026.”

Over the past few years, the sector has seen a decline in equity raised. From raising R69.4bn in 2014, SA listed property raised R7.4bn in 2023. There  has been decent activity so far this year with Vukile Property Fund raising R1bn and Sirius Real Estate raised £150m from SA and offshore investors.

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