Linkedin-in
Twitter Linkedin-in
Search
Close this search box.

QUICK
LINKS

SA Economy

Redefines’retail portfolio grows as trading conditions in SA improve

by

Redefine Properties’ retail portfolio continues to deliver as trading conditions in South Africa improve

Johannesburg, 2 December 2024 – Redefine Properties (JSE: RDF), one of South Africa’s leading real-estate investment trusts (REIT), has noted an improvement in trading conditions in South Africa’s retail sector going into the 2024 holiday season. With positive trends in retail sales, rental renewal rates and visitor foot count, the momentum in the sector bodes well for South Africa’s future growth.

In August 2024, retail sales in South Africa increased year-on-year by 3.2%. This marked the sixth consecutive month of growth in retail activity and at a robust pace. Additionally, foot traffic in major shopping centres rose by 8.3% year-on-year during the second quarter of 2024, a positive trend that has continued since December 2021. The rent-to-turnover ratio, which is a measure of retailer’s cost of occupancy, is now at its best level in more than ten years.

Nashil Chotoki, Retail national asset manager at Redefine, attributed the growth in retail activity to non-discretionary spending, with food and value-focused retailers serving as the main industry drivers. “Within the Redefine portfolio, grocers contribute 64% of turnover growth. Therefore, a tenant mix of essential services and retailers aligned with value offerings that is relevant to the demographics of the catchment areas will be a key success factor for shopping centres. It is why Redefine will increase its exposure to this category to 40% of its GLA in the next financial year,” Chotoki explained. “Lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence will further drive retail sales growth into some of the discretionary retail categories, and, ensuring that the tenant mix of a shopping centre is aligned to this will create sustainable growth.”

These trends come on the heels of the release of Redefine’s annual results for the 2024 financial year (FY24). The REIT’s retail portfolio accounts for 45% of its South African property asset platform, with a carrying value of R28.3 billion (up from R24.6 billion in FY23). Redefine owns 59 retail properties nationwide, occupied by 2,807 tenants with an annual trading density of R34,700 per sqm. The portfolio’s rent-to-turnover ratio of 7.7% reflects sustainable revenue growth prospects across its retail formats.

Redefine also enjoys an active occupancy rate of 95%, which it expects to increase in FY25 due to healthy letting demand. Furthermore, with the help of tenant support programmes and data-driven insights, Redefine ensures tenants are placed in optimal macro-locations to enhance their trading performance. This has enabled Redefine to improve its rent reversion rate on renewal to 0.2% and achieve a renewal success rate of 88%. Our analysis goes way beyond shopper data and combines a variety of data to drive insights to make decisions that inform our strategy at an asset level.

“We have also found that upgrades to stores, particularly grocers, drive improvements in turnover through attracting new customers to shopping centres. That is why Redefine is working closely with national retailers to support this, culminating in 8,500 sqm worth of upgrades scheduled to commence in February 2025,” Chotoki added.

To further diversify income streams, Redefine has pursued alternative revenue opportunities through in-mall and exterior billboards, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure installed at eight sites. Sustainability remains a top priority, with solar photovoltaic plants generating 18% of the portfolio’s energy needs thanks to an installed capacity of 34,587 kWp. Expansion plans will add another 12,351 kWp in capacity.

“There are still challenges in our path, but what is certain is the resilience and promise that South Africa’s retail industry poses from both a consumer and business perspective. Through strategic planning and implementation, and by prioritising the needs of consumers and our tenants, we are fully tapping into the power of retail spaces as social and economic enablers,” Chotoki concluded.

Frenzied shopping season awaits as Black Friday arrives late

by

A frenzied festive shopping season awaits as Black Friday arrives late

Black Friday’s late arrival on 29 November sets the stage for a uniquely condensed peak shopping season. With five fewer days until Christmas compared to the November 25 and 24 dates of the past two years, the question remains: how will this impact retail sales performance?

Black Friday has come to symbolise the kick-off of the holiday shopping period. Despite the earlier dates, the past two years have seen disappointing Black Friday spending. Savvy shoppers demand real value and great experiences, and many South Africans have been particularly cash-strapped.

A shortened shopping season but more consumer confidence

This year, fewer shopping days between Black Friday and Christmas Eve could signal lower sales over the festive period, even with a surge in shopping as consumers scramble to make purchases. However, consumers are feeling more confident about spending than in recent years, and some even have a little more to spend, which could result in bigger baskets balancing out the effects of the compressed timeline.

Factors contributing to this rise in confidence include a settling political landscape, the suspension of load shedding, a stabilising currency, improving inflation rates, a second local interest rate cut, and the first payouts from South Africa’s new Two-Pot Retirement System.

Retailers adapt

General dealers like Game, Makro, Builders, and Jumbo Cash & Carry have already responded to this festive season’s time-crunch dynamic with month-long Black Friday promotions starting in early November.

These extended campaigns may actually work in consumers’ favour, allowing them to feel more secure in their purchasing decisions as they have longer to evaluate deals and sales. That said, campaigns like Game’s, which notes “When it’s gone, it’s gone”, send a clear message not to dither over purchasing decisions too long.

Interest rates and disposable income

Historically, when consumers perceive their financial situation as stable or improving, they’re more likely to splurge during seasonal shopping peaks.

With last week’s announcement of a further 25bps interest rate cut resulting in interest rates being 50bps lower than this time last year, putting a bit more money in consumers’ pockets, we can expect a positive impact on festive spending. The start of a downward interest rate cycle in September means consumers will have some more disposable income to allocate towards non-essential purchases.

Wage increases and year-end bonus payouts are expected to improve in 2024, adding to seasonal spending power. Yet, many companies remain under financial strain, with limited capacity to pay bonuses, instead opting for retail gift cards for their employees.

The two-pot effect

When it comes to the first payouts from the Two-Pot Retirement System, indications are that much of this will go to debt repayment and education-related spending. Still, it will also benefit retail as the easing of other financial pressures allows people to loosen their spending belts a little.

A focus on essentials

However, for the 2024 festive season overall, consumers will continue to remain cautious, focusing primarily on essentials. At Emira, recognising the increasing preference for an all-in-one shopping experience has led to a focus on providing exceptional shopper experiences and smooth journeys.

Buy-now-pay-later

The attractiveness of buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) options like Pay Just Now and Payflex will play a role in festive buying trends – online and instore, offering consumers no-fee, interest-free repayment plans that are especially appealing to budget-conscious consumers.

The role of social media

Social media will have an immense influence on the choice of gifts and the season’s most-wanted items, with platforms like TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram becoming virtual shop windows. Influencers have become modern-day advertisements that help retailers reach audiences in an authentic way.

Seamless shopping experiences

For shopping centres and retailers, the short season means a greater emphasis on providing seamless experiences. Ensuring ease throughout the shopping journey means customers can enjoy frictionless festive shopping outings.

Many price-conscious and time-pressed shoppers arrive at a shopping centre knowing what they want after comparing products and pricing online but still prefer the in-store purchasing experience. So, it’s important to make their shopping trip a good one.

All-in-one shopping

At Emira, our retail centres offer a variety of essential and unique retailers. One example is Wonderpark Shopping Centre in Pretoria, which is expanding its entertainment and leisure offering with the launch of Goldrush in November and a refurbished Play Area and Kiddies Club in time for December and the school holidays, surrounded by various restaurants and eateries. These amenities invite customers to linger longer, providing maximum value to their overall shopping experience.

A January boost?

Interestingly, the condensed festive season may actually lead to higher spending in January. Consumers may feel rushed, postponing certain purchases until the new year. The growth in the popularity of gift cards as presents means redemptions will occur in January, driving sales.

Back-to-school dash

Back-to-school shopping in January may also see a more pronounced trend than in the past, with both inland and coastal public schools, as well as most private schools, starting on the same day, 15 January 2025. This creates another potential time crunch, emphasising excellent seasonal planning to meet demand and quickly pivot from one retail season into another.

The stakes are high

The stakes are always high for retailers and shopping centres over the holiday season, and this year’s condensed timelines intensify the pressure.

Shopping centres that deliver smooth, seamless, all-in-one experiences, with retailers offering trending products and services, various payment options, and great customer service, will be best positioned to benefit from the upside of the early improvement in consumer sentiment.

Growthpoint’s major R800m development to ease KZN’s student accommodation

by

Thrive Student Living to ease KZN’s student accommodation squeeze with 2,400 new beds in major R800m Growthpoint development

Thrive Student Living has started its largest student accommodation development yet. Representing a significant R800 million investment, the new purpose-built student accommodation development has commenced immediately adjacent to the main gate of the Howard College Campus of University of KwaZulu-Natal in Berea, eThekwini.

Undertaken by Growthpoint Properties’ specialist development division, the project will add 2,400 student beds in the region, which research shows has the biggest shortage of student beds in South Africa.

“Proprietary research commissioned by our team revealed that KZN remains undersupplied with student beds,” says Kobus Blom, Growthpoint’s KwaZulu-Natal Regional Development Manager. “The province has significant demand, and most students live in environments that are not conducive to student outcomes.”

In response to this need, Growthpoint has commenced the two-year development programme for the new building which is set to welcome its first students in January 2027 under the Thrive Student Living banner.

The new development was celebrated with a sod-turning ceremony, attended by the Honourable Mayor of eThekwini, Cllr Cyril Xaba, and the Chief Financial Officer of eThekwini, Dr Sandile Mnguni, as well as representatives of Thrive Student Living and the Growthpoint development team and its partners. This massive investment puts into action Growthpoint’s commitment made at the recent KwaZulu-Natal Investment Conference for R800 million of investment in the province over two years, which it is executing through this development for Thrive Student Living.

Amogelang Mocumi, Fund Manager of Growthpoint Student Accommodation Holdings, which operates under the Thrive Student Living brand, expresses the company’s commitment, “By prioritising student accommodation that supports better education outcomes, we are not only enriching lives but supporting employment and fuelling a more competitive economy. This investment highlights the transformative power of strong partnerships and underscores what is possible through collaborative efforts. To grow these achievements, we need a unified approach across all levels of government, together with private sector investment to support economic growth. Together, we can build a brighter future for young people and our nation.”

Growthpoint develops purpose-built student accommodation located and designed around students to help them succeed and make the most of their university experience.

In line with Thrive Student Living’s ethos of fashioning vibrant campus communities, each unique in its architecture and design to reflect and foster its specific community, it has shaped a beautiful contemporary design for the new 12-storey building incorporating the red face-brick that is an architectural signature in the Berea area.

The design also includes all the added amenities that Thrive Student Living accommodation offers, like study areas and games rooms, gyms and IT rooms, and backup power and water. Uniquely, it has also been designed to include a small element of ground-floor retail tailored towards daily convenience, which will serve building residents, other students, and the immediate community, as there is nothing else in the area fulfilling this need.

The development will also benefit from Growthpoint’s recognised green building leadership, creating healthy, sustainable environments and operating with a social consciousness that adds value to communities. Growthpoint’s developments boost job and economic opportunities, in addition to having long-term positive socioeconomic impacts of education support.

While this is its first purpose-built student accommodation project in KZN,Growthpoint has a proud track record of leading purpose-built student accommodation developments in the university cities of Johannesburg, Pretoria and Cape Town.

It was recently named the winner of the SAPOA Property Development Award for Innovative Excellence in Student Accommodation for its development of Thrive @ Horizon Heights, also for Thrive Student Living, at the bustling heart of Johannesburg’s student community. Thrive @ Horizon Heights opened for the 2024 academic year and was well let, proving popular with those from the nearby University of Johannesburg as well as the University of the Witwatersrand.

The Growthpoint development team is currently completing two new properties for Thrive Student Living for the 2025 academic year: Thrive @ Crescent Studios, a R300m 900-bed property located in Braamfontein, and Thrive @ Arteria Parktown, a R200m 500-bed located in Parktown, both ideally positioned for Wits University students.

Piling commenced at the eThekwini site in the first week of October 2024 in preparation for the main building contractor, which moved onto site today (Monday 18 November 2024), to begin construction.

Emira reports robust half-year results and reshapes its portfolio 

by

Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI) reported strategic delivery, diversification-enhancing acquisitions, active capital recycling, and strong operational and balance sheet metrics for its six-month interim period ended 30 September 2024. The company’s interim distributable income per share increased by 6.9%. It declared a 1.1% higher cash-backed interim dividend per share of 62.39c. Emira’s net asset value per share increased by 12.3% to 1,945.50cps during the six months, driven by rising property valuations and the fair value equity gain from Emira’s maiden investment in Poland.

Geoff Jennett, CEO of Emira Property Fund, attributes the positive performance to strengthening operational metrics, active asset recycling, and strategic deal-making, reflected in its reshaped portfolio. He adds that Emira is on track to deliver on its objectives for the full year, which it expects to result in marginally higher distributable income compared to that achieved for its past financial year.

Jennett reports, “Emira’s local portfolio outperformed, our US investments are comfortably on track, and we completed the first tranche of our investment into DL Invest, bolstering our diversification by tapping into Poland’s burgeoning economy with its unique growth drivers and opportunities.”

Emira invested €55,5 million for an initial effective 25% equity stake in DL Invest Group, a Luxembourg-headquartered property company developing logistics centres, mixed-use/office complexes and retail parks, valuing its assets at €730 million and NAV at €278 million pre-investment.

Emira has the option to expand its position in DL Invest Group by investing an additional €44,5 million, which will   increase its equity holding to 45%. This second tranche subscription option must be exercised by 31 January 2025 and requires shareholder approval to pursue. Castleview Property Fund, which holds around 58% of Emira’s issued shares, has given its irrevocable vote in favour of exercising the option, and shareholders can expect to receive a circular regarding the option.

DL Invest Group has a 17-year track record in Polish commercial real estate, with a €730 million portfolio focused mainly on logistics. Emira’s investment will fund DL Invest Group’s logistics development pipeline, aiming to create a €1 billion business. The partnership aligns with its co-investment strategy with in-country specialists. Emira will participate actively, with board representation, and has committed to an initial five to six-year investment term.

Funding for the first tranche of investment came from Emira’s balance sheet and recent disposals. Its non-core commercial and residential property sales transferred, completed and agreed upon during the period totalled R2.6bn. Emira’s strategic capital recycling strengthens liquidity by disposing of non-core assets that can be sold at fuller value. This creates capacity to invest in undervalued opportunities with stronger growth potential.

Emira’s balance sheet is healthy, with an adequate 2.3x interest cover ratio and a loan-to-value ratio that declined from 42.4% to 42.0% over the six months and is expected to decrease further as property disposals transfer and a portion of the proceeds are deployed to reduce debt. It reported unutilised debt facilities of R370m and cash on hand of R112.8m at half-year which will increase as proceeds from disposals are realised. Emira has a strong and diversified financial foundation, with support from all major South African banks and the proven ability to access the debt capital markets. In October, GCR affirmed its corporate long-term credit rating of A(ZA) and corporate short-term rating of A1(ZA), with a stable outlook.

The first tranche of its latest transaction has immediately increased Emira’s international investments to 26.8% of its portfolio — with 15.5% in the US and 11.3% in Poland — while 73% remains in South Africa, shifting it towards lower-risk, more attractive diversification with enhanced stability and appeal. The second tranche DL Invest Group option creates the potential for this to become nearly 37% offshore.

Emira is a real estate investment trust (REIT) with a diversified portfolio balanced to deliver stability and sustainability through different cycles. This risk-mitigating strategy includes a mix of domestic and international assets in direct holdings and indirect investments with specialist co-investors. Emira’s direct South African portfolio of 84 properties worth R12.1bn is diversified across commercial property sectors and residential rental property. Emira’s exposure to the United States is with US-based partner The Rainier Companies. Emira holds equity interests, with unanimous voting rights, in 12 dominant, value-oriented grocery-anchored power centres.

The local portfolio performed well, surpassing most key targets. SA commercial vacancies are already low and tightened to 3.9% from 4.1%. The portfolio saw an increase in like-for-like valuation of 4.7%, reflecting enhanced metrics across all three sectors and improved business sentiment. Residential occupancy remained strong at 96.7% and, similarly, maintained like-for-like valuation levels. Both sets of metrics signal a property portfolio that is attractive, competitive, adaptable and designed for lasting performance.

Emira’s commercial portfolio by value is split between urban retail (43%), office (25%) and industrial (15%) of the directly held SA portfolio. All sector vacancies are below the applicable benchmarks, and tenant retention increased from 81% to 83% by revenue during the period, reinforcing Emira’s effective leasing strategies. Its 15-property directly held retail portfolio of primarily grocery-anchored neighbourhood centres catering to their communities is trading well with improved metrics, including low vacancies of 4.2%. Despite the slump in office sector fundamentals, Emira’s portfolio of 20 mainly P- and A-grade office properties saw office vacancies improve into single-digit territory, from 10.9% to 9.4%. Emira’s diversified industrial portfolio of 28 properties enjoyed strong demand and delivered a sustained defensive performance at near full occupancy, with vacancies stable at 0.7%.

Residential rental assets comprise 21 properties, or 17% of Emira’s directly held SA portfolio by value, comprised of The Bolton in Rosebank, Johannesburg, and the 20 quality, affordable suburban units of Transcend Residential Property Fund, Emira’s wholly-owned specialist residential company. The portfolio of 3,588 units is split between Gauteng’s (90% by value) and Cape Town’s (10% by value) high-demand areas. The portfolio is achieving rental growth, with sustained demand for accommodation.

Overall, the commercial portfolio benefited from R119.8m in tactical upgrades, including various sustainability-driven initiatives, reconfigurations and refurbishments. Emira also invested R8.6m into its residential portfolio.

Emira collaborates with industry bodies to address South Africa’s deteriorating municipal infrastructure, which is a concern due to underinvestment. Inconsistent utility supply and rising costs hinder operational efficiency. To combat this, Emira is driving sustainability through fast-tracked solar power, water-saving initiatives, and backup systems. “We’re committed to energy-efficient buildings and are passionate about biodiversity. Our ESG strategy makes Emira properties the excellent choice for businesses,” notes Jennett.

Jennett points to easing inflation, declining interest rates, and growing political stability in South Africa, transforming the outlook for local real estate. “With costs stabilising for consumers and businesses alike, spending is set to rise, boosting property demand. More favourable interest rates should bolster investor confidence and reshape tenant demand patterns. Decreased loadshedding has further strengthened business confidence, prompting firms to invest in longer-term plans. Improved sentiment post-election bodes well for stronger long-term returns from the property sector, but short-term growth will be tempered as the market absorbs elevated vacancies and while economic headwinds subside. While it will take time for these positive factors to yield measurable results, they position Emira well to continue delivering strong returns to investors.”

Emira’s 12 equity investments in US grocery-anchored dominant value-oriented power centres total R2.56bn (USD147.1m). The US economy remains on a steady and stable growth trajectory, with GDP up 3% for Q2 2024 and 2.8% for Q3 2024 coupled with low unemployment, easing inflation and a 50bps cut to interest rates in September and another 25bps trim in November. While US elections introduced some uncertainty to the economy, stability should return with clarity of the new government’s priorities and policy. This environment continues to support Emira’s investment in US open-air centres focused on popular value and needs-based retail in robust markets.

Robustly resilient property fundamentals and high-quality tenants underpinned the US portfolio’s low vacancy rate of 3.5% and combined portfolio WALE of 4.5 years. It delivered a solid performance, adding R120.1m to Emira’s distributable income.

Jennett concludes, “Emira’s strategic pivot is in full swing as we target opportunities with robust growth potential tightly aligned with our long-term goals. These solid half-year results put us firmly on track for a marginal increase in distributable income for FY25, reinforcing Emira’s consistent record of reliable performance.”

Dipula shines with solid results, solar roll-out and strong prospects

by

Dipula shines with solid results, solar roll-out and strong prospects

JOHANNESBURG, 13 November 2024 — Dipula Income Fund (JSE: DIB) has reported a solid set of results for its financial year to 31 August 2024, delivering strong operational, financial and strategic progress. Dipula’s property portfolio produced growth and increased by 4% in value to R10.2 billion, contributing to a 5% rise in net asset value.

Dipula is a prominent South Africa-invested REIT with a diversified portfolio of 165 retail, office, industrial and residential rental properties. Convenience, rural and township retail centres produce 65% of its defensively weighted portfolio income, and 60% of portfolio rental income is generated in Gauteng.

Izak Petersen, CEO of Dipula, comments, “South African trading conditions and consumer sentiment are improving post the July 2024 national elections. The new Government of National Unity has been well received, with parties committed to enhancing service delivery. Global and local interest rate cuts, easing inflation, and a stronger Rand also bode well for the economy. We anticipate these macroeconomic improvements will positively impact the property market in the short to medium term.”

Despite recent improvements, the 12 months to 31 August 2024 were challenging due to rising property costs and interest rates at their peak. “Notwithstanding the challenging operational and financial environment, Dipula delivered a good set of results,” adds Petersen.

Dipula’s revenue grew by 7% despite negative rental reversions in government-tenanted offices and lower income due to prior-year disposals. Net property income increased by 2%, under pressure from above-inflation municipal hikes that significantly increased property expenses, higher maintenance spending, and rising third-party contract labour costs. Net finance costs increased by 3%. Overall, prior disposals, bigger expenses and higher finance costs led to a decrease in distributable earnings per share of 4%. The declared dividends totalled 90% of distributable earnings.

Operational results were distinguished by high levels of active leasing. Dipula concluded leases worth R1.4 billion during the year, keeping its portfolio well occupied with longer leases. It achieved robust tenant retention, improved from 84% to 87%, with R1.2 billion of leasing representing renewals.

Retail vacancies improved from 7.5% to 6.4%. However, the overall portfolio vacancy rate was 7.5%, up from 6.0% in the previous year, primarily due to higher vacancies in the office and industrial sectors.

Dipula’s 83 retail properties offer well-located trading spaces and convenient access for shoppers. Each property is tailored to meet the specific needs of the local area, providing essential goods and services that resonate with the community. All tenant categories reported positive turnover growth, with health and beauty, restaurants and fast food, liquor, and hardware delivering the strongest growth. When tenants chose not to renew their leases during the year, Dipula secured replacement rentals at a 14% higher rate. The retail portfolio’s value increased by 8%.

Accounting for 16% of rental income, Dipula’s office spaces offer flexible, modern work environments that cater to the diverse needs of businesses in prime urban locations. While the office portfolio ended the year with a vacancy rate of 22%, Dipula anticipates a gradual recovery in line with recent sector improvements, supported by limited new development activity that will further support rising occupancy rates and healthy rental growth.

Dipula’s mid-sized industrial and logistics facilities in strategic locations represent 14% of its rental income. With a vacancy rate of just 3%, this strong, stable portfolio boasts the lowest vacancy across Dipula’s assets.

Its residential properties provide affordable, high-value housing in economically vibrant locations. This portfolio is 4% of rental income and recorded an average vacancy for the 2024 financial year of 6%.

Dipula’s commitment to tight cost control is evident in its improved administrative cost-to-income ratio, which reduced from 4.4% to 3.3%. While the overall cost-to-income ratio temporarily rose to 42.3% (2023: 39.5%), this increase was mainly driven by elevated property-related expenses and lower municipal cost recoveries. This is, however, expected to return to normal levels of around 40%.

Diligent asset management enables Dipula to reduce risk and improve its portfolio with various value-adding strategies. It invested R169 million in refurbishments and capital expenditure during the year. It also disposed of properties for R37 million, with proceeds funding value-enhancing revamps and the roll-out of renewable energy and backup power.

“We’re building a future-fit portfolio by investing in sustainable assets. This year, we rolled out the first phase of our solar photovoltaic programme, which is now live at nine of 10 sites. The project increases Dipula’s solar power capacity by 5.3 kWp, taking it from 1.6kWp to 7kWp – a number we plan to treble in the next 24 to 36 months. We also invested in waste and water management, community investment, staff training and wellness, and nurturing new talent through internships,” reports Petersen. Dipula’s sustainability strategy rests on a systematic process, pinpointing and tackling risks and opportunities that matter most to its business and stakeholders, guided by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Dipula’s prudent balance sheet management underpins its consistent, sustainable financial returns. It restructured its debt facilities from 1 March 2024 with a R3.8 billion syndication programme, extending its weighted average debt expiry period significantly from 1.9 years to 4.1 years. Dipula maintained debt levels comfortably above all covenant requirements, with a year-end gearing of 35.7%, an ICR of 2.7 times, and undrawn facilities of R80 million. Solid balance sheet metrics ensured Dipula‘s credit rating was affirmed at BBB+(ZA) and A2(ZA), respectively, with a stable outlook.

Looking ahead, the long negative cycle for South African real estate is showing signs of improving. Research highlights stronger leasing performance across office, retail, industrial and residential properties.

“As inflation eases and the power grid stabilises, we foresee rental growth and a slowdown in cost increases. This should bolster business and consumer confidence, potentially spurring economic investment and strengthening property fundamentals, despite navigating ongoing challenges presented by failing municipalities,” notes Petersen.

The company expects better performance from the 2025 financial year, having completed various capital projects. Dipula’s retail and industrial portfolios are poised to continue their robust performance, while the office sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery. High occupancy levels are anticipated for the affordable residential sector, with rental growth that at least keeps pace with inflation. Dipula expects distributable earnings growth of at least 5% for the year ahead.

“Dipula’s strategy prioritises capital allocation to energy sustainability, portfolio- and income-enhancing developments and elevating tenant quality. Discerning investment decisions, positive economic trends and focused management will drive improved performance and continue to deliver sustainable value for our stakeholders,” Petersen concludes.

Value in the current oversupply of commercial property space

by

At these levels, there’s value in the current oversupply of commercial property space 

For the past seven years, South Africa’s listed property sector has been in the doldrums. A toxic cocktail of economic weakness leading to rising vacancies, the devastating impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and higher interest rates, and the added burden of load-shedding and various other costly utility challenges, created a perfect storm. It brought cruel headwinds for property owners that have left investors wary. But the winds of change are blowing.

Listed property share prices are starting to show an increased value proposition and this will inevitably lead into the physical commercial property market.

So far, in 2024, real estate investment trust REIT returns are up in excess of 50%.

Nowhere are signs of a real estate turnaround more evident than in the Western Cape, where offices that sat vacant just 18 months ago are now full.

The semigration trend to the province is part of this. But it’s not the whole story. Improving sentiment post the Government of National Unity (GNU), less loadshedding easing strain and costs, and the first reduction in interest rates, together with the expectation that they will fall further, are country-wide factors all contributing to a surge in sentiment and confidence.

In addition, most corporates are now insisting on a return to in-office work, resulting in a greater need for office space. This spells opportunity – particularly in Gauteng, which is the hub of South Africa’s economic engine, and where vacancies are still prevalent.

There’s more value to be unlocked

Successful investors look further than headlines to find value. And, as the economy starts to stir, savvy investors can scent opportunity.

Property is inherently cyclical, and it’s starting to pick up the first gusts of coming tailwinds. Yes, the sector still has an oversupply to digest, but there’s value in it if acquired at the current low pricing levels. As offices fill up and economic sentiment improves, their values will increase commensurately.

With the anticipation of reduced vacancy levels, property investment becomes more attractive, and the prospect of new developments becomes increasingly feasible, drawing investors and speculators back into the market. It’s a potentially tantalising prospect after years of stagnation.

Disciplined, sustainable growth

In fact, the future prospect is more alluring than it has been for a long time. This is even true in the local REIT sector, where we still see share prices that significantly undervalue their businesses, but with the incoming tailwinds, we will inevitably see an acceleration towards the recovery on the horizon.

When market sentiment overshoots fundamentals, long term investors like Emira stay focused on what makes business sense, not getting caught up in the hype –  acquiring at below value in places where economics are suppressed and disposing when values are full. It all comes down to strategic capital allocation and responsible growth. When markets show extreme dislocations from value, that is the time to to move and take advantage of what will eventually show as long-term value creation.

Demonstrating its agility and business sense, Emira’s recently sold off its portfolio in sought-after Cape Town at what it perceives as fuller value. This strategically aligned move freed-up capital to be deployed in Poland, where returns are extremely enticing (undervalued with strong economic growth prospects) and where we had identified the right entry point (co-invested into equity with local partners with growth aspirations) – a decision that makes business sense for Emira in its pursuit of diversification and value creation.

The stage is set for a long-awaited turnaround

Rising REIT returns, reducing vacancies, and returning office appetite all point to a sector in recovery mode. The property cycle is turning, and those with a keen eye for value are already taking notice.

The South African property sector still has meaningful operational and infrastructure hurdles to overcome, but the winds of change are starting to blow and, with a nuanced understanding of the sector and a discerning eye for emerging potential, there’s substantial value in listed property stocks right now with further value to be found in the future

Copyright SA REIT Association

© 2024
Privacy Policy